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Moody’s: Bankruptcy, Skipping Pension Payments Options for CPS

The credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Services outlined three “painful” options for how  Chicago and its public school system could get out of money trouble.

The school district could consider another property tax levy to pay off its growing debt or skipping its pension payment to the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund, Moody’s says in a pair of reports issued to potential investors Thursday. 

The boldest option was floated as a last resort: Chicago Public Schools should consider seeking state authority to file for bankruptcy. 

Bankruptcy and skipping a pension payment would require changes to state law and bankruptcy has been raised by Gov. Bruce Rauner and Illinois Republicans in the past, but was quickly dismissed by Mayor Rahm Emanuel and others. A spokeswoman for the school district on Thursday said all three options would create more financial problems and would be bad for city taxpayers. 

These reports come one week before the city plans to borrow more money to cover its debt payments and one month after Mayor Rahm Emanuel sent a letter to the credit rating agency accusing it of bias. The city hasn’t requested a credit rating from Moody’s in two years.

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“It has become increasingly clear that Moody’s rating methodology and agenda are far from objective and independent,” Emanuel wrote in the December letter. “This is not to say that the City should be rated AAA, but… your current rating does not accurately reflect the City’s credit or our ability to pay debt service when due.”

The report about the City’s finances does acknowledge some of the steps Emanuel has taken to improve both the city’s and the school system’s finances. Specifically, it notes the additional property tax levies that have been created to fund the pensions of city workers, police officers and public school teachers. 

But, the report says, “contributions will remain insufficient to keep reported unfunded liabilities from growing for at least 15 more years.”

The reports issued Thursday are meant to help potential investors decide whether to lend Chicago money.

Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, says the city is on the right track, but it’s delicate.

“In general, the city is doing the right things,” Fabian says. “But it’s just started doing the right things. And it’s depending on time to give it more financial flexibility. Maybe it will have that time, and maybe it won’t.” 

He says risks faced by the city and its school system are probably the top two conversations in his professional world.

“The problem with Chicago is not so much the economy, and it’s not even really the pensions, long-term,” he says. “It’s the political issues.”

For instance, raising taxes too quickly could trigger a political backlash, which Moody’s also acknowledges in its report. But going slowly increases the risk that something else — like a recession — could make the financial problems worse.

Dan Weissmann contributed reporting for this story.

Chicago Tribune

Six years after Daley, Emanuel still using high-cost borrowing practices

Mayor Rahm Emanuel is pitching Wall Street investors on the latest city borrowing plan, a $1.2 billion package that, like previous versions, pushes hundreds of millions of dollars of debt into the future at higher costs to taxpayers.

The mayor is continuing scoop-and-toss borrowing, which involves paying off old bonds with the proceeds from new ones — a practice akin to taking out another mortgage on a house to pay off the old mortgage, kicking payments down the road. An Emanuel budget spokeswoman said this year marks the last scoop-and-toss bond issue.

The administration also said it'll be the last time the city will borrow money to pay for a portion of routine legal settlements and judgments, adding millions in interest to what are short-term expenses. Some of that debt will take the form of taxable bonds, which carry higher interest rates. That's because the federal government doesn't allow the issuance of tax-free bonds for what are considered yearly operating expenses.

Kathy Bergen and Stacy St. Clair

Chicago's Washington Park was nearly empty on a recent Friday afternoon as Bronzeville resident Rosemary Jarrett power-walked her usual five laps around the perimeter of the graceful meadowland where a temporary Olympic stadium could have risen this summer.

The school crossing guard shook her head...

Chicago's Washington Park was nearly empty on a recent Friday afternoon as Bronzeville resident Rosemary Jarrett power-walked her usual five laps around the perimeter of the graceful meadowland where a temporary Olympic stadium could have risen this summer.

The school crossing guard shook her head...

(Kathy Bergen and Stacy St. Clair)

Beyond that, the mayor plans to borrow a to-be-determined amount to cover some of the initial interest payments on the new debt the city is taking out, which adds to the overall cost. It's the equivalent of taking out a loan to pay the initial interest on a mortgage.

Emanuel inherited the costly borrowing practices, detailed by the Chicago Tribune in its 2013 "Broken Bonds" investigation, from predecessor Richard M. Daley. Emanuel, now on his sixth spending plan, has used the techniques to prop up a sagging City Hall budget. In 2015, the mayor promised to end the costly financial moves by the end of his second term in 2019.

The administration's plans call for pricing the bonds on Jan. 18-19, when the market will determine the interest rates, and closing on the deal Feb. 1, Emanuel's Chief Financial Officer, Carole Brown, said in a web-based "roadshow" used to pitch the bonds. City finance officials also plan to meet with investors in Chicago, Boston and New York before the bonds are sold to make further pitches, a common tactic Chicago and other major cities have begun to use in recent years.

The city is likely to pay relatively high interest rates because municipal bond market rates recently increased, and continuing financial problems at Chicago Public Schools and the state of Illinois has investors concerned, said Matt Fabian, a partner at Concord, Mass.-based Municipal Market Analytics.

Fabian also said buyers would look more favorably on city debt if it stopped using "budget gimmicks" like scoop-and-toss and borrowing to pay initial interest payments "instead of just talking about how they're going to stop."

While Mayor Rahm Emanuel has reduced Chicago's use of borrowed money to plug budget holes, records show he continues to rely heavily on the practice, devoting nearly half of the $300 million in long-term bond funds spent over the past two years to short-lived expenditures.

As the City Council prepares...

While Mayor Rahm Emanuel has reduced Chicago's use of borrowed money to plug budget holes, records show he continues to rely heavily on the practice, devoting nearly half of the $300 million in long-term bond funds spent over the past two years to short-lived expenditures.

As the City Council prepares...

But he added that "the municipal market has come to see and talk about Chicago as a bit of a success story" after Emanuel set in motion plans to contribute hundreds of millions of additional dollars a year to its pension plans for police officers, firefighters, city workers and laborers.

At Emanuel's urging, the City Council in recent years increased telephone fees for emergency service, dramatically increased property taxes and enacted a new tax on city water and sewer service to help fund higher contributions to the four pension funds.

But there's uncertainty about how the city will come up with hundreds of millions of additional dollars in the early- to mid-2020s that will be needed to make even higher contributions to those funds in an effort to prevent them from running out of money. And the plans for the municipal workers' and laborers' funds have yet to be approved by a state government mired in partisan gridlock.

Nevertheless, Wall Street bond rating agencies have changed the city's debt outlook from negative to stable based on the efforts underway to stabilize the pension funds, all of which were at risk of going broke in the 2020s even if the city's general bond ratings remain low. That could result in the city paying lower interest rates than they otherwise would have when the bonds go to market this month.

Richard Ciccarone, president and CEO of Merritt Research Services, said interest rates also could go higher because of "intangible" factors not directly related to city finances, like a recent "60 Minutes" segment on Chicago's spiking violent crime rate. "Those kind of things don't help, even though they are very indirectly related to finance," he said.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel said Monday that cash-strapped Chicago Public Schools is likely to borrow against a $45 million property tax increase he’s proposed in his budget for school construction.

The CPS tax hike is part of the record $588 million property tax increase aldermen are expected to approve...

Mayor Rahm Emanuel said Monday that cash-strapped Chicago Public Schools is likely to borrow against a $45 million property tax increase he’s proposed in his budget for school construction.

The CPS tax hike is part of the record $588 million property tax increase aldermen are expected to approve...

But Ciccarone praised the mayor's efforts to fix the pension systems, reduce the city's annual budget funding gaps, rely less on short-term borrowing and beef up city budget reserves. "The city moved forward in 2016 on making real incremental progress," he said.

The City Council signed off last year on the latest round of borrowing, but the scoop-and-toss total is about $100 million higher than Emanuel finance aides told aldermen was in the works. The dollar amount went up because plans to refinance about $100 million in debt to save money were no longer possible after a recent rise in municipal bond interest rates, budget spokeswoman Molly Poppe said. The city still plans to refinance about $25 million.

Some specifics about the $1.2 billion borrowing plan:

•$440 million in scoop-and-toss borrowing, a long-term delay tactic that adds millions of dollars in interest costs to be paid by taxpayers over the next 20 years.

•About $225 million to pay legal settlements and court judgments. Other cities with sounder finances pay such costs without borrowing that adds millions of dollars to the taxpayer tab.

•About $405 million for construction projects and equipment, including new police vehicles.

Poppe defended the city's plans to borrow money to cover some of the initial interest costs, saying that's "common practice" in cases where cities don't anticipate the construction projects financed by the borrowing to be completed for a while. That way, "debt service expense does not begin until the project is operational and benefiting communities," she said.

Heather Gillers and Hal Dardick

Mayor Rahm Emanuel has reduced spending and increased fines, fees and certain taxes to shrink the chronic budget deficits left over from his predecessor, Richard M. Daley.

But four years after taking office, Emanuel still at times resorts to Daley's questionable budget tactics as the mayor struggles...

Mayor Rahm Emanuel has reduced spending and increased fines, fees and certain taxes to shrink the chronic budget deficits left over from his predecessor, Richard M. Daley.

But four years after taking office, Emanuel still at times resorts to Daley's questionable budget tactics as the mayor struggles...

(Heather Gillers and Hal Dardick)

Laurence Msall, president of the nonpartisan Civic Federation budget watchdog group, lauded Emanuel's pledge to end borrowing for scoop-and-toss and legal settlements and judgments, but expressed some skepticism as to whether the mayor could keep the promise.

"Even if the city is able to end most borrowing for operations by 2019, it faces significant financial challenges that could make it difficult to maintain its commitments in the future," said Msall, who called on Emanuel to "present a plan" for covering future debt service payments and paying off legal settlements and judgments.

hdardick@chicagotribune.com

Tim Holler
Barron's

Uptick in Muni Defaults Could Hurt More Investors in 2017

By Amey Stone

While the uptick in municipal bond defaults isn't that high, it could be more painful for municipal bond investors in the coming year, writes Matt Fabian of Municipal Market Analytics in his latest report on default trends Friday.

That's because bond insurance isn't nearly as common now as it used to be. "Credit trauma is likely to harm bondholders more directly this year and in the future," he writes.

Last year saw 65 first-time payment defaults, up from 60 in 2016. Eight of 2016 defaulters were Puerto Rico issues. However, the number of "impaired" credits declined in 2016.

He sums up the outlook:

The drop in impairments bolsters the alternative scenario outlined in the last issue of DEFAULT TRENDS: that municipal defaults are not necessarily beginning to leg higher but are instead experiencing modest volatility around a relatively low baseline. Nonetheless, MMA is comfortable advising subscribers to approach the new year expecting an uptick in default activity as emergent state budget gaps belie tax and fee revenue weakness across the government spectrum and, because of more aggressive high yield underwriting in 2016 (see OUTLOOK 1/3/17) a large universe of unseasoned project financings is poorly prepared for economic setbacks.

The iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) climbed to $108.35 by Friday afternoon, a 27 cent gain so far in 2017.

Tim HollerDefaults